Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox Pick For 6/30/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies are set to square off on June 30, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field in what will be the third game of their interleague series. Both teams have struggled mightily this season, with the White Sox carrying a 24-61 record and the Rockies slightly better at 27-55.

The White Sox will send Garrett Crochet to the mound, an elite left-hander ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Despite a solid 3.05 ERA and a 6-6 Win/Loss record, Crochet has been somewhat unlucky this year, as his xFIP of 2.40 suggests he could be even better. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 1.5 earned runs, and striking out 8.8 batters. Crochet's high strikeout rate (34.9 K%) could be a key factor against a Rockies lineup that ranks 3rd in most strikeouts.

Opposing Crochet will be Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Freeland, also a lefty, has struggled significantly with a 9.55 ERA and a winless 0-3 record over just five starts. His xFIP of 5.14 suggests some bad luck, but not enough to paint an optimistic picture. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.1 batters. The White Sox lack power, ranking 28th in team home runs, which might mitigate one of Freeland's weaknesses as a high-groundball pitcher.

Offensively, the White Sox rank last in MLB, while the Rockies are 17th. Luis Robert has been the standout for the White Sox recently, hitting .273 with a 0.996 OPS and 2 home runs over the last week. Brendan Rodgers has been the best for the Rockies, batting .353 with a 0.950 OPS.

In the bullpen, the Rockies hold a slight edge, ranking 18th compared to the White Sox's 25th. This matchup could hinge on starting pitching, where Crochet's elite status and Freeland's struggles paint a clear advantage for Chicago. Betting markets reflect this, with the White Sox as heavy favorites at -175, giving them a 62% implied win probability. The Rockies are underdogs at +155, with a 38% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland has relied on his four-seamer 7.3% more often this year (25.7%) than he did last season (18.4%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Brendan Rodgers's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 88.7-mph seasonal average has fallen to 76-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .318 overall projected rate, the .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Colorado's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Paul DeJong, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 28 away games (+5.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.08 vs Chicago White Sox 4.33

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