Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies on September 5, 2024, in a game that holds significant implications as the Braves aim to solidify their position in the playoff race. With a record of 76-63, the Braves sit comfortably above .500, while the Rockies struggle at 51-89, marking a tough season for them.

In their most recent game, the Braves faced the Rockies and emerged victorious, adding to their momentum. Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves' projected starter, boasts an impressive 2.00 ERA this season, ranking him as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB. His performance has been stellar, though advanced metrics indicate he may have been a bit lucky, with a 3.71 xFIP that suggests he could regress. Lopez has been effective, allowing an average of just 2.1 earned runs per game, but his projection of 4.4 hits allowed may raise some eyebrows.

On the other side, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber to the mound. Gomber has had a challenging season, with a 4-10 record and a 4.69 ERA, which is slightly above average. His struggles are compounded by a 5.22 xERA, indicating he might be due for further setbacks.

Offensively, the Braves rank 13th in MLB, with a solid home run count despite being 28th in stolen bases. Matt Olson has been the team's standout hitter recently, providing critical contributions. Meanwhile, the Rockies, sitting 19th in offensive rankings, have seen Brendan Rodgers excel, boasting a .360 batting average over his last week.

With the Braves heavily favored at a moneyline of -275 and an implied team total of 5.26 runs, they enter this matchup looking to capitalize on their strong pitching and recent form against a Rockies team eager to find some consistency.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Gomber to throw 84 pitches in this game (13th-most of the day), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Brenton Doyle has been lucky this year, putting up a .344 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .043 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Compared to their .313 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Reynaldo Lopez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Atlanta Braves hitters collectively grade out 2nd- in the game for power this year when judging by their 10% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 126 games (+33.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 58% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.87 vs Atlanta Braves 5.32

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