Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 8/14/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Gordon - Rockies
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to take on the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field on August 14, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams but in vastly different contexts. The Diamondbacks are having a strong season with a record of 67-53, currently holding a solid position in the National League West, while the Rockies, at 44-76, are struggling significantly this year, having one of the worst seasons in MLB.

In their last meeting, the Diamondbacks showcased their prowess, further solidifying their position as a playoff contender. The D-Backs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who has been somewhat inconsistent this season, boasting a 7-6 record with a bloated ERA of 6.37. However, his underlying metrics suggest that better days may be ahead, indicated by a xFIP of 4.86. Montgomery's low strikeout rate could play to his advantage against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts.

On the opposite mound, Tanner Gordon takes the hill for Colorado. With an 0-3 record and an ERA of 6.15, his performance has been equally lackluster. The projections indicate that Gordon's xFIP of 3.84 demonstrates he too might have been unlucky, but his average expected performance suggests a troubling outing given that he typically pitches less than five innings per game.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league, a significant edge over the Rockies, who are ranked 16th overall. Over the last week, Arizona's Adrian Del Castillo has been particularly hot, recording seven hits and five RBIs, along with a 0.467 batting average. Meanwhile, Colorado's Jake Cave has managed to keep pace, but with less impact.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the D-Backs having a very high implied team total of 5.37 runs, Arizona enters this matchup as a significant betting favorite at -225. The Diamondbacks are primed to exploit Colorado's weaknesses both on the mound and at the plate, making this matchup pivotal for the Rockies as they look to find a silver lining amidst a dismal season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.262) suggests that Elias Diaz has been lucky this year with his .305 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jordan Montgomery will tally an average of 16.7 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jake McCarthy is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+18.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 85 games (+5.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.18 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.17

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.