Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks 6/16/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On June 16, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Cleveland Guardians at the Rogers Centre in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Blue Jays, currently sitting at 34-36, are having an average season. Meanwhile, the Guardians, boasting a 44-24 record, are having a fantastic campaign and are making a strong push for the playoffs.

The Blue Jays will send right-hander Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios, despite his 5-5 Win/Loss record, has an impressive 2.93 ERA this season. However, his 4.09 xFIP suggests he might regress. This year, Berrios has been a low-strikeout pitcher (18.9 K%), which could be problematic against a Guardians offense that ranks 4th in least strikeouts in MLB. His projections indicate he will pitch around 6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, but might struggle with control, allowing 5.9 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

On the other side, Cleveland will counter with Ben Lively, who has been surprisingly effective this season with a 6-2 record and a stellar 2.59 ERA. However, his 4.07 xFIP also hints at potential regression. Lively’s high-flyball rate (38%) could play into the Blue Jays' hands, but Toronto's lack of power (27th in home runs) suggests they may have difficulty capitalizing. Projections have Lively going 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.4 walks.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled this season, ranking 22nd in overall offense and near the bottom in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Their best hitter over the last week has been Ernie Clement, who boasts a scorching .800 average and a 2.200 OPS in his last five games. Conversely, the Guardians' offense ranks 11th overall and is more balanced, ranking 14th in batting average and 7th in stolen bases. Steven Kwan has been hot, hitting .500 with a 1.215 OPS over the last week.

The bullpens might play a crucial role in this game. The Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 12th in MLB, indicating it is solid but not exceptional. The Guardians have a significant edge with the 2nd-best bullpen in MLB.

Betting markets have the Blue Jays as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Guardians’ moneyline is set at +110, implying a 46% win probability. Given the Guardians' superior season performance and balanced offense, they could be a value pick in what is projected to be a close game.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (60.4 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Steven Kwan's 1.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) is in the 2nd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has put up an 8.4% Swinging Strike rate this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Alejandro Kirk's speed has gotten better this year. His 23.66 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.52 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.34

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