Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/13/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On July 13, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Guardians at Tropicana Field for the second game in their series. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, with the Guardians having a great season at 57-36 and the Rays holding steady at 47-47. Despite this difference in overall records, betting markets are projecting a close game with both teams holding an implied win probability of 50%.

Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays. The right-hander has been average this season with a 4.44 ERA and a 3-6 record across 17 starts. However, his 3.83 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky, and better days could be ahead. Littell is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, solidifying his steadiness, but he may struggle with allowing hits and walks.

On the flip side, the Guardians will send out Gavin Williams, also a right-hander. Williams has a 4.82 ERA and a 0-1 record in just two starts. Like Littell, his peripheral stats suggest improvement; a 2.64 FIP indicates he's been particularly unlucky. Williams is expected to pitch 4.8 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs. His projection has him striking out 5 batters while allowing an average of 4 hits and 1.9 walks.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled this year, ranking 22nd in overall offensive capability, 20th in batting average, and 26th in home runs. However, they shine in stolen bases, ranking 5th. Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot lately, hitting .458 with a 1.250 OPS over the last week.

Meanwhile, the Guardians boast a more balanced offensive attack, ranking 12th overall and 13th in batting average. They also rank 9th in home runs and stolen bases. Bo Naylor has been hot recently, with a 1.026 OPS and 2 home runs in the past week.

With both teams having strengths and weaknesses, this matchup promises to be a compelling contest. The Guardians aim to leverage their strong season and solid bullpen, while the Rays will rely on their speed and hope for a standout performance from Littell.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Despite posting a .407 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Steven Kwan has experienced some positive variance given the .096 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell projects for an average of 17 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Over the last two weeks, Ben Rortvedt's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 86 games (+10.92 Units / 10% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+15.20 Units / 217% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.11 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.93

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