Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 9/4/2025
The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays will square off Thursday to open a four-game series. Both teams are trying to gain ground in the crowded American League Wild Card race and this series opener in Tampa will be huge for the chances of both teams. Before the first pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field, continue reading to get my Guardians vs Rays prediction for tonight.
Our Guardians vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 4, 2025, 7:35 PM
- Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen (CLE) vs Ryan Pepiot (TB)
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Logan Allen (7-10, 4.42 ERA) has shown flashes throughout the season but has struggled with command. He has walked 55 batters across 135 innings and putting extra runners on base could be a problem for him here. His road ERA (4.89) has been a concern as well. Ryan Pepiot (10-10, 3.70 ERA) has been more steady. He has a 1.18 WHIP with 148 strikeouts in 154 innings. Pepiot has been reliable at home with a 3.32 ERA and has limited hard contact.
Playoff Picture
These teams are separated by a half-game in the American League Wild Card standings. Tampa is 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the AL and Cleveland is three games back. This series will have a huge impact on where both teams stand heading into the final few weeks of the regular season.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Guardians ended a three-game losing streak by beating the Boston Red Sox in the final game of their last series.
- Tampa has won six games in a row to resurrect their chances of grabbing a Wild Card spot in the American League.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| José Ramírez (CLE) | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cleveland holds a 2-1 lead in their season series against the Rays this year.
- Two of the three games between these teams has seen a shutout of one side or the other.
Guardians vs Rays Model Projection
- Score Projection: Guardians 3 – Rays 5
- Win Probability: Guardians 44% – Rays 56%
Final Thoughts
This should be an evenly matched game between two teams that really need to pick up a win to set the tone for the rest of this series. I think that the Rays will be the team to get that win. Cleveland is below the .500 mark on the road for the year and they should struggle here, even if they aren’t playing in the Rays’ usual home of Tropicana Field. I’ll back the more reliable Pepiot on the mound as the Rays should get their seventh win in a row.
