Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Cleveland Guardians on September 21, 2024, for the second game of their interleague series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, sitting at 77-77, are looking to leverage home field advantage against the 90-65 Guardians, who are having a notably stronger season. Despite the mid-tier rankings of each team's offense, this contest features an intriguing pitching matchup.

Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Cardinals. With a season ERA of 5.49, Mikolas has faced his share of challenges this year. However, his xFIP of 4.07 suggests that he's been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Standing at #146 among starting pitchers, Mikolas will need to elevate his game significantly against a Guardians lineup that ranks 5th in stolen bases and is capable of capitalizing on low strikeout pitchers like Mikolas.

Matthew Boyd is set to start for the Guardians. Ranked #46 among starters, Boyd boasts a strong 2.52 ERA. However, his 3.80 xFIP hints at luck playing a role in his current success, suggesting possible regression. Boyd will face a Cardinals lineup that has shown some spark, with Brendan Donovan shining lately, batting .360 with a 1.048 OPS over his last seven games.

Both bullpens are respectable, with the Guardians holding the edge at 5th compared to the Cardinals' 12th in Power Rankings. The Cardinals, despite their average season, have a projected win probability of 51% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which is notably higher than betting markets suggest. This discrepancy might present an opportunity for bettors looking to find value in the Cardinals at home.

With both teams contesting close games and aiming to finish the season on a high note, expect a tightly pitched affair where the ability of each lineup to capitalize on pitching inefficiencies may be the deciding factor.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Kyle Manzardo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has utilized his curveball 8% less often this year (12%) than he did last year (20%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Michael Siani's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 84.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 81.4-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The St. Louis Cardinals projected offense projects as the 5th-worst of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.05 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.95 Units / 85% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.29 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.11

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