Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Preview – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 20, 2024, at Busch Stadium in an interleague matchup. While the Cardinals have had an average season with a 77-76 record, the Guardians have excelled, boasting an 89-65 record and a strong position in the playoff race. Despite their differing standings, the betting markets predict a close contest, with the Cardinals holding a slight edge with a moneyline of -115.

The Cardinals will send Kyle Gibson to the mound, who has been less than stellar, ranking 156th among starting pitchers. His ERA of 4.11 masks potential regression, as indicated by his 4.73 xERA. Gibson's performance is projected to be average, with an expected 5.6 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed. However, his strikeout ability is below-average, and he struggles with allowing hits and walks.

Ben Lively will start for the Guardians, and despite his respectable 3.87 ERA, his 4.51 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate this season. Lively's projections paint a similar picture to Gibson's, with an average outing expected. However, Lively's strikeout rate is notably low, and he tends to allow too many hits and walks.

Offensively, both teams are fairly evenly matched, with the Cardinals ranked 18th in overall offense and the Guardians close behind at 19th. However, the Guardians have demonstrated more power, ranking 13th in home runs compared to the Cardinals' 23rd. The Guardians also have an edge with their 5th-ranked stolen base tally.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Cardinals with a 53% win probability, suggesting they may have a slight advantage despite the Guardians' stronger season. With both teams projected to score just over four runs, expect a tight battle in this series opener.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ben Lively has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.9% less often this year (39.7%) than he did last year (45.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Brayan Rocchio has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 78.6-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last season (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Michael Siani, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 squad in the league this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 154 games (+12.82 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.38 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.45

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