Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 6/15/2025

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on June 15, 2025, both teams find themselves in a dead heat, each boasting a record of 35-34. The Mariners, currently ranked 12th in offensive performance, have shown promise with their power, ranking 8th in home runs this season. However, they sit at 20th in team batting average, suggesting inconsistency at the plate. The Guardians, on the other hand, rank 24th in both overall offense and batting average, indicating they’ve struggled to generate runs.

In the pitching matchup, Emerson Hancock takes the mound for the Mariners, coming off a solid outing despite having an ERA of 5.04 this season. Hancock is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, which is slightly above average, but his 4.36 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. His counterpart, Luis Ortiz, has a more favorable ERA of 4.26 and is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. Ortiz has been relatively average, but his projections indicate a potential for better performance.

This game is particularly crucial as it marks the third contest in their series, intensifying the competition between these two teams. The Mariners' bullpen ranks 23rd in MLB Power Rankings, which could be a concern if the game remains close late. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers expect a competitive matchup, reflected in the equal moneyline of -110 for both teams.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis L. Ortiz has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 6.3% more often this year (52.4%) than he did last year (46.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the Cleveland Guardians makes them the #28 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Rowdy Tellez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 98.3-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 64 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 42% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.21, Seattle Mariners 4.1

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

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