Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the Cleveland Guardians in an intriguing Interleague matchup at Oracle Park. The Giants currently sit with a record of 41-32, enjoying a solid season, while the Guardians are at 36-35, hovering around average. This game marks the second in a series between these teams, following a tightly contested opener.

Justin Verlander is projected to start for the Giants, bringing with him a challenging season thus far, with a 0-3 record and an average ERA of 4.33. Although he has been unlucky in some aspects, his performance metrics suggest he could struggle against a patient Guardians lineup. Verlander’s projections indicate he is likely to pitch only 3.7 innings, allowing an average of 1.6 earned runs but also giving up an alarming 3.0 hits per outing.

On the other side, Logan Allen takes the mound for the Guardians. With a 4-4 record and a comparable ERA of 4.28, Allen has also faced issues, particularly with control, given his high walk rate of 10.3%. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, which aligns with the Giants' patient approach at the plate. This could play into San Francisco's favor, as they rank 6th in MLB for drawing walks.

Offensively, the Giants rank 21st in the league, while the Guardians find themselves at 25th, making this a battle of underwhelming offenses. However, the Giants' bullpen shines, ranked 1st overall, which could prove pivotal if the game remains close. With the Giants as betting favorites and an implied team total of 4.27 runs, they appear positioned to capitalize on their home advantage despite their offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Allen has used his secondary pitches 5.6% more often this year (57.3%) than he did last season (51.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all SPs, Justin Verlander's fastball spin rate of 2421 rpm is in the 84th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph EV last year has dropped off to 83.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jerar Encarnacion has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 42% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.25, San Francisco Giants 4.55

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.