Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Cleveland Guardians at Oracle Park in what is the first game of their interleague series. The Giants are currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 41-31, while the Guardians sit at a .500 mark of 35-35, indicating an average performance thus far. San Francisco's strong start is buoyed by their elite bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, which contrasts sharply with Cleveland's 12th-ranked unit.

Robbie Ray will take the mound for the Giants, entering the game with an impressive 8-1 record and a stellar 2.55 ERA. Ray has shown that he can dominate hitters, evidenced by his Power Rankings position as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 3.59 xFIP suggests he may not be as fortunate going forward, as he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs over 5.6 innings today. His ability to strike out 6.6 batters on average should benefit the Giants against a Guardians offense that ranks as the 25th best in MLB and is struggling to find its rhythm.

On the other side, Slade Cecconi will start for Cleveland, and his 1-3 record with a 4.26 ERA reflects a less-than-ideal performance. Although projections suggest he may improve, his current form is not reassuring. He is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.3 innings, with a troubling average of 5.1 hits allowed.

With the Giants favored at -155 and an implied team total of 3.84 runs, the matchup heavily favors them, especially given Cleveland's offensive struggles. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs indicates expectations for a tightly contested game, but with the Giants' pitching and bullpen strength, they appear poised to secure a win.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cleveland Guardians hitters as a unit rank in the cellar of baseball this year ( 2nd-worst) when it comes to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 33% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.03, San Francisco Giants 4.09

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - Guardians
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

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