Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/18/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on April 18, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their seasons. The Pirates currently sit at 8-12, struggling with one of the worst offenses in MLB, ranking 28th overall. Meanwhile, the Guardians are slightly better at 9-9, but still only rank 20th in offensive efficiency. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially considering the Pirates' disappointing start and the Guardians' attempts to gain some momentum.

In their last outing, the Guardians faced off against the Baltimore Orioles, where they fell short, highlighting their ongoing offensive challenges. The Pirates, on the other hand, have been reeling with a subpar performance, especially from their starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski, who is projected to start. Mlodzinski has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 6.23, which is concerning. His advanced stats suggest he may be due for some positive regression, but he still projects to pitch poorly today, averaging only 4.8 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed.

Luis Ortiz, starting for the Guardians, also faces scrutiny, with a 6.06 ERA and a similar record. However, his projections indicate a potential for better performance. Given that both pitchers are struggling, this could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially with the Game Total set at 9.0 runs.

The Pirates' bullpen ranks 27th in MLB, while the Guardians boast the 1st best bullpen, giving Cleveland an edge in late-game situations. The projections favor the Guardians to score more runs, with an implied team total of 4.76, compared to the Pirates' 4.24. As both teams take the field, the Guardians will look to capitalize on their pitching advantage and the Pirates will hope to turn their fortunes around at PNC Park.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

In the last week's worth of games, Bo Naylor's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.7% up to 20%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Oneil Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 98.6-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 171 games (+2.95 Units / 1% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 81% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.15, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.31

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates

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