Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/5/2025

On June 5, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium in a vital American League matchup. The Yankees are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 37-23, while the Guardians sit at 33-27. The stakes are heightened as this series marks the third meeting between these two teams.

The Yankees are projected to start Max Fried, who has emerged as one of the elite pitchers in baseball, ranking 6th in Power Rankings. Fried boasts an impressive 7-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.92 this season, though his xFIP suggests he might experience a regression. Fried’s ability to pitch deep into games, averaging 6.2 innings, and limiting earned runs to 2.0 will be crucial against a Cleveland offense that ranks 22nd overall this season.

In contrast, the Guardians will send Slade Cecconi to the mound. Despite an average ERA of 5.28, Cecconi’s xFIP of 3.81 indicates he could be in line for some positive regression. However, he has struggled to keep hitters off balance, and facing a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in both overall offense and home runs presents a daunting challenge.

With the Yankees' offense clicking on all cylinders and a solid bullpen ranked 5th overall, they enter the game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -255. The projections suggest that the Yankees will tally around 5.18 runs, while the Guardians may struggle to reach 3.32 runs. As the teams face off, expect the Yankees to leverage their power against Cecconi's high flyball rate, potentially turning flyballs into home runs and further extending their lead in the AL East standings.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

In his last GS, Slade Cecconi was firing on all cylinders and notched 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jose Ramirez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 89.2-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme groundball bats like DJ LeMahieu usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Slade Cecconi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Austin Wells grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.52 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.15 Units / 119% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.02, New York Yankees 5.19

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - Guardians
  • Max Fried - Yankees

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.