Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/3/2025

The New York Yankees are set to face the Cleveland Guardians on June 3, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup at Yankee Stadium. With the Yankees sitting at 36-22 and the Guardians at 32-26, both teams are enjoying solid seasons, although the Yankees have the edge in overall performance.

Carlos Rodon, projected to start, ranks as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a 7-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.60 this season. While his FIP of 3.11 suggests he may have had a bit of good fortune, his ability to strike out 6.2 batters per game makes him a tough opponent. The Yankees' offense, which ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, has been particularly potent, hitting 95 home runs this year, a clear advantage against Tanner Bibee, the Guardians' starter.

Bibee, with a 4-5 record and a 3.86 ERA, has shown flashes of potential but is projected to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.1 hits on average. Facing a high-flying Yankees lineup could spell trouble for him, especially given that he’s a high-flyball pitcher with a 38% flyball rate.

With the Yankees' offense firing on all cylinders, and their bullpen ranked 9th best in MLB, they are well-positioned to take this first game of the series. The projections suggest a favorable outcome for New York, making them a strong betting favorite with an implied team total of 4.57 runs. Meanwhile, the Guardians will need to find a way to overcome their offensive struggles, ranked 24th in MLB, if they hope to keep pace in this matchup.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has used his slider 8.5% more often this season (15.5%) than he did last year (7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jose Ramirez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 96.7-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2263 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2320 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Extreme flyball batters like DJ LeMahieu tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Bibee.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.52 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 75% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.67, New York Yankees 4.52

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

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