Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Pick & Preview – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On August 20, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium for the first game of their series. The Yankees hold a slight edge in the standings, with a record of 73-52, while the Guardians trail closely behind at 72-52. Both teams have shown strong performances this season, with the Yankees boasting the best offense in MLB, though their Power Rankings suggest they have room for improvement, especially with a bullpen currently ranked 22nd.

For this matchup, the Yankees will send Luis Gil to the mound, who has had a great season with a 12-6 record and an impressive 3.25 ERA over 23 starts. However, advanced projections suggest he might have been a bit lucky so far, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.18, which could set him up for a tougher outing.

On the other side, Matthew Boyd, projected to start for the Guardians, has been lights out in his lone start this season with an elite ERA of 1.69. Nevertheless, his peripheral stats indicate he may not continue this stellar performance, as his xFIP sits significantly higher at 2.63. Boyd's ability to avoid walks will be put to the test against a Yankees lineup known for their plate discipline, ranking 1st in walks.

This matchup not only highlights the contrasting strengths of both teams' offenses and pitching but also showcases a high-stakes battle as they vie for playoff positioning. Given the Yankees' overall production and strong home performance, they enter as betting favorites with a high implied team total of 4.70 runs, while the Guardians will aim to exceed their average projection of 3.80 runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 7 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Matthew Boyd has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Will Brennan has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all starters, Luis Gil's fastball velocity of 96.1 mph ranks in the 93rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Aaron Judge has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 95.9-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 64 games (+17.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 away games (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4 vs New York Yankees 4.72

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