Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Pick – 8/5/2025
The New York Mets are set to host the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday night at Citi Field. The Guardians won an extra-inning game over the Mets on Monday and New York will look to even this interleague series at a game apiece tonight. Before first pitch from Queens, continue reading to get my Guardians vs Mets prediction.
Our Guardians vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Mets Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets |
| Date & Time | August 5, 2025, 7:10 PM EDT |
| Starting Pitchers | Logan Allen vs. Clay Holmes |
| Stadium | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Broadcast | MLB.TV |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Logan Allen will face Clay Holmes in this contest. Allen is 7-9 for the Guardians this year and has a 4.06 ERA. He will be opposed by Clay Holmes of the Mets. Holmes is 9-6 and has a 3.45 ERA for the season. Both pitchers are very similar in terms of WHIP and walk numbers and will need to keep the basepaths clear to win this game.
Bullpen Usage: Both bullpens were used pretty heavily in Monday’s game and had to pitch a 10th inning on top of their normal workload. Cleveland has a slightly superior bullpen ERA for the season but the bullpens are pretty evenly matched here.
Team Momentum: The Mets have lost four of their last five games. That includes Monday’s series opener against the Guardians. Cleveland has won four of their last five games. They rebounded from a loss to the Minnesota Twins on Sunday with a victory on Monday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | Hits | Over 1.5 |
| Pete Alonso | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| José Ramírez | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- The Guardians lead the season series between these teams 1-0 after Monday’s game.
- The over hit in the first game of this series. There were 13 total runs scored.
- The Guardians are 28-28 on the road after Monday’s win.
- The Mets are 38-19 at home for the season.
Guardians vs Mets Model Projection
Projected Score: Mets 5 – Guardians 4
Win Probability: Mets 55% | Guardians 45%
Final Thoughts
The Mets have been struggling coming into this game. But I’m inclined to think that their struggles will end at least for one night with a win in this game. The offense of the Mets should carry them through this game where everything else is mostly evenly matched. Look for Pete Alonso to make an especially big impact to help his team get a victory here.
