Cleveland Guardians VS Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -150, Twins -1.5 130
• Money Line: Guardians 135, Twins -160
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 41%
• Minnesota Twins - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 39.06%
• Minnesota Twins - 60.94%

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

On April 6, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field. The Twins, with a season record of 3-3, are having an average season so far. Meanwhile, the Guardians boast a strong 6-2 record, indicating a great start to their season. As the home team, the Twins will look to bounce back from their recent loss against the Guardians and secure a victory in this American League Central matchup.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ryan, who has shown promise as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his lone start this season, Ryan displayed excellent form, pitching 5 innings with only 1 earned run, 5 strikeouts, 3 hits, and 1 walk. His impressive ERA of 1.69 suggests he has been performing well, although his xFIP of 4.55 indicates potential regression in future performances.

On the other side, the Guardians will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. While Carrasco has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.40, his peripheral indicators, such as a lower SIERA, xERA, and FIP than his ERA, suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Twins offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB, indicating room for improvement. However, they have shown some power, ranking 7th in team home runs. The Guardians offense, on the other hand, has been strong, ranking 7th overall. Despite their low ranking in team home runs, they have excelled in other areas, including stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Twins as the 9th best in MLB, while the Guardians rank 18th. This could give the Twins an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, implying a 59% win probability. THE BAT X projects the Twins as a big favorite with a projected win probability of 61%. The Guardians, with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%, are considered the underdogs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The switch-hitting Jose Ramirez will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Joe Ryan.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Cleveland Guardians (17 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Max Kepler has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+12.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 152 games (+21.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.55 Units / 31% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Guardians 3.83 vs Minnesota Twins 4.6

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