Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On August 16, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cleveland Guardians in a pivotal interleague series opener at American Family Field. Both teams are in strong positions, with the Guardians sitting at 72-49, enjoying a great season, while the Brewers are also having a good year with a record of 69-52. This matchup not only carries playoff implications but also presents an intriguing battle of pitchers: Aaron Civale for the Brewers and Gavin Williams for the Guardians.

Civale has had his struggles this season, posting a 3-8 record and an ERA of 5.02, which places him at #148 in advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 4.28 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression, making him a wild card for this game. He is projected to allow an average of 2.6 earned runs over 5.4 innings, though his tendency to give up hits and walks could be problematic.

On the other hand, Gavin Williams has been performing decently with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 4.38, ranking him at #53 among starters. While he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings, he is expected to yield 2.2 earned runs, a sign of a potentially effective outing if he can limit hits and walks.

Offensively, the Brewers boast the 9th best offense in MLB, particularly excelling in batting average and ranking 2nd in stolen bases. The Guardians, while sitting at a middle-of-the-pack 15th in overall offense, have shown promise with the 8th best stolen base tally. This could be pivotal given their ability to generate runs through quick baserunning.

With both teams having a competitive edge and a strong showing expected from both starting pitchers, this game figures to be tightly contested, making it a key point in the playoff race.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's fastball velocity has risen 1.2 mph this year (96.2 mph) over where it was last year (95 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Will Brennan has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Bo Naylor, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Milwaukee Brewers batters collectively grade out 24th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 121 games (+14.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 120 games (+14.47 Units / 9% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.56 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.16

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