Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick & Preview – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cleveland Guardians on August 17, 2024, both teams are in the thick of a competitive season, sitting at 70-52 and 72-50, respectively. In the meeting between these teams on Friday, the Brewers got the win over the Guardians, while Cleveland will look to bounce back tonight.

Freddy Peralta is slated to take the mound for the Brewers. The right-hander has had a rollercoaster season, currently holding a 7-7 record and a 4.11 ERA, which suggests he may have been a bit unlucky given his 3.58 SIERA. Peralta's high strikeout rate (28.8 K%) could be problematic against a Guardians offense that ranks as the 5th least strikeout-prone in MLB. However, he should find some comfort in facing a Cleveland lineup that has been average overall, ranked 15th in both batting average and home runs.

On the other side, Tanner Bibee will start for the Guardians. With a solid 10-4 record and a stellar 3.39 ERA, Bibee has been effective this season. His low walk rate (6.0 BB%) will challenge the Brewers, who are known for their patient approach at the plate, ranking 3rd in MLB in walks. This matchup places Bibee in a favorable position to limit the Brewers' offensive output, which has been inconsistent lately.

The advanced projections suggest a close game, with a total set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potential pitching duel. While both teams have solid bullpens—ranked 13th for the Brewers and 8th for the Guardians—the Guardians may hold the edge if they can capitalize on Peralta's struggles. Bettors should keep an eye on this matchup, as the Brewers’ strong offensive rankings, especially in batting average (5th), could provide them with an unexpected advantage if they can connect effectively against Bibee.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 9.68 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.42 — a 0.26 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Bo Naylor has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 96-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians (18.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers bats jointly rank 24th- in the game for power this year when using their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 120 games (+12.37 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.13 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.15

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