Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On September 8, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Cleveland Guardians at Dodger Stadium in an exciting interleague matchup. The Dodgers are enjoying a strong season with an 85-57 record, currently holding a solid position in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Guardians, at 81-61, are also having a good campaign but face a tougher challenge as they battle for Wild Card positioning.

In their last game, the Dodgers won convincingly over the Guardians on Saturday. With a series already underway, the Dodgers aim to capitalize on their home field advantage, especially given their 3rd best offense in MLB, which has been relentless this season, producing 139 home runs.

Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. Flaherty boasts an impressive 3.01 ERA and ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in the league, according to the leading MLB projection system. However, he faces a Guardians lineup that, while average overall, is known for its ability to avoid strikeouts, which could neutralize Flaherty's high strikeout potential (31.1 K%).

On the other side, Tanner Bibee is slated to start for the Guardians, with a 3.56 ERA. Despite being ranked 35th among starting pitchers, his projections indicate struggles, particularly with fly balls, which could spell trouble against a powerful Dodgers offense. The Dodgers' patience at the plate may also be tested against Bibee's good control, potentially limiting their ability to draw walks.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -155, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory. However, this matchup presents a classic battle of strengths, with the Dodgers' offense aiming to exploit Bibee's vulnerabilities while the Guardians look to find their footing against a capable Dodgers pitcher.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Steven Kwan has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 15.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 5.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to average, Jack Flaherty has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Tommy Edman has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 5.1% rate last season has dropped to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+10.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.81 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.54

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