Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 6/30/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians gear up for their fourth matchup in this series on June 30, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League Central showdown. The Royals, boasting a 46-39 record, are enjoying an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Guardians are having a great season with a 52-29 record and currently lead the division.

For Kansas City, Seth Lugo will take the mound. Lugo has been solid this season, sporting an impressive 2.29 ERA and a 10-2 win/loss record over 17 starts. However, his 3.82 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Lugo projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 4.1 batters on average. While his strikeout numbers are below average, his ability to limit walks (1.6 projected) could be crucial against Cleveland's offense.

Cleveland will counter with Logan Allen, who has struggled with a 5.72 ERA despite an 8-3 record in 16 starts. His 4.66 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky, and he might be due for better results. Allen projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 3.9 batters on average. His low strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against a Royals lineup that ranks 5th in the league for the fewest strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams bring balanced attacks. The Royals rank 14th in overall offense, with their strength lying in stolen bases (7th). On the other hand, the Guardians rank 11th in offense, showing more power at the plate, ranking 10th in home runs. Hunter Renfroe has been hot for Kansas City, hitting .350 with 2 home runs and a 1.108 OPS over the last week. Jhonkensy Noel has been Cleveland's standout, posting a .333 average and 1.511 OPS in his last four games.

The Royals' bullpen, ranked 27th, will face off against the best bullpen in baseball, Cleveland's top-ranked unit. This disparity could be pivotal in what's expected to be a close game. Betting markets currently favor Kansas City with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% chance of winning, while Cleveland stands at +110, indicating a 46% likelihood.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Tyler Freeman's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.7-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Maikel Garcia, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+7.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 74 games (+15.77 Units / 16% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 44% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.75 vs Kansas City Royals 4.65

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