Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 7/25/2025
The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals will open up a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium on Friday night. Both of these teams are hovering around the .500 mark for the year. They are competing for second place in the AL Central and will look to set the tone in this series-opening matchup. Before the Guardians and Royals take the field, continue reading to get my Guardians vs Royals prediction.
Our Guardians vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Guardians Moneyline
- Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Friday, July 25, 2025, 8:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams (CLE) vs Michael Wacha (KC)
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Key Storylines
- Pitching Form: Gavin Williams has been impressive this season. He is 6-4 and has a 3.54 ERA in 104.1 innings. Williams has a strong track record against the Royals. He has a 2.14 ERA in six career starts against them. Michael Wacha is 4-9 with a 3.62 ERA this season. He has been better at home than he has been on the road. That could help the Royals in this game.
- Bullpen Usage: These teams are tied for eighth in the league in bullpen ERA at 3.72. The Royals have a rest advantage in the bullpen going into this game. They had yesterday off and the Guardians had to play yesterday against the Orioles.
- Recent Team Streaks: The Guardians are coming off a loss to the Orioles but have won four of their last five games. The Royals have won three of their last four games. They took two out of three games against the Chicago Cubs in their most recent series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
| Michael Wacha | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
| Jose Ramirez | Over 0.5 home runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Guardians have a 4-2 lead in the season series against the Royals.
- Five of the six games between these teams have seen single-digits in runs scored between the two teams.
- Cleveland is 26-26 on the road this year. The Royals are 24-26 at home for the season.
Guardians vs Royals Model Projection
- Score Projection: Guardians 5 – Royals 4
- Win Probability: Guardians 51.5%, Royals 48.5%
Final Thoughts
The Guardians have been playing well of late. I expect that to continue in this contest against the Kansas City Royals. Williams has been more reliable on the mound than Wacha. And while Wacha has been better at home than he has been on the road, I don’t think his home/road splits will be enough for the Royals to beat the surging Guardians.
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