Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Game 1 Prediction – 7/26/2025
The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals will open a split doubleheader in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. This doubleheader will take place at Kauffman Stadium following the postponement of Friday’s game due to rain. The Guardians enter at 51‑51 and the Royals at 50‑53. Both will be looking for a huge win as they try to chase down the Detroit Tigers.
Our Guardians vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Guardians moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 26, 2025, 2:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams (6–4, 3.54 ERA) vs Michael Wacha (4–9, 3.62 ERA)
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Form
Both pitchers who were scheduled to throw on Friday will pitch in Game 1 on Saturday. Gavin Williams has pitched to a 3.54 ERA but his 1.38 WHIP suggests he allows too many baserunners. Kansas City’s Michael Wacha allows fewer walks and has a lower WHIP but that hasn’t translated to wins. If Wacha has more control than Williams in this start he could change that and get a win here.
Bullpen Usage
Both bullpens in this game will benefit from an extra day off from Friday’s rainout. The Guardians were set to be at a rest disadvantage if they had to play on Friday. But with that day off the Guardians should be in better shape from a bullpen perspective than they would have been otherwise.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Guardians are 4-1 in their last five games heading into this series opener.
- The Royals are 3-2 in their last five games and took two games out of three against the Chicago Cubs in their last series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| José Ramírez (CLE) | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Guardians lead the season series 4-2 over the Royals this year.
- These teams haven’t played since April 13 and could look different than they did in that last series.
- Cleveland is 26-26 on the road this year. The Royals are 24-26 at home.
Guardians vs Royals Model Projection
Score Projection: Cleveland 4 – Kansas City 3
Win Probability: Cleveland 52% – Kansas City 48%
Final Thoughts
I think that Michael Wacha is better than his record indicates for the Royals. But Kansas City has struggled to score runs for him on a consistent basis this season. I think that will continue here and the Guardians will benefit greatly from a day off to help their bullpen recover from their four-game set against the Orioles. I’ll take the Guardians to win on the road to start this doubleheader.
