Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Pick – 7/9/2025

The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros will play the final game of their three-game series on Wednesday. Cleveland came into this series on a long losing streak but have managed to steal the first two games on the road. They will look for a series sweep of the Astros in this game, while the Astros look to salvage a game. Here, I break down this American League matchup and make my Guardians vs Astros prediction.

Our Guardians vs Astros Pick

• Pick: Astros moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Slade Cecconi has a 3-4 record and a 3.56 ERA. Brandon Walter is 1–1 with a 4.15 ERA in six appearances. Neither of these pitchers have been bad but they haven’t been anything special either.
• Bullpen usage: The Astros still have a top-three bullpen in MLB in terms of bullpen ERA. But they have struggled in this series against the Guardians so far. If that changes, Houston could get on the board in this three-game set.
• Recent team streaks: The Astros are losers of two games in a row to the Guardians. Cleveland is still just 2-8 in their last 10 games after winning their last two.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 games: Astros 3-2, Guardians 2–3
• Day/Night splits: The Guardians are 24-30 in night games this year. The Astros are 34-27 in night games.
• Runline Records: The Guardians are 47-43 on the runline this year. Houston is 44-48 in their games.

Guardians vs Astros Model Projection

Score Projection: Guardians 3 – Astros 5
Win Probability: Guardians 35% – Astros 65%

Final Thoughts

This series has been one where the Guardians have been winning in spite of the statistical advantages of the Astros. I don’t expect that to continue here. The Astros should get one game out of this series, as their bullpen should find a way to turn things around against the Guardians’ lineup. Expect Houston to win this game and for the runline to be worth considering with them on top of the moneyline.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.