Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Pick – 7/7/2025

The struggling Cleveland Guardians head to Houston to face the red-hot Astros on Monday, July 7, 2025. These teams are moving in opposite directions heading into this game, with Cleveland struggling mightily, while the Astros are coming off of one of the most impressive series of the season for any MLB team, in my opinion. Here, I break down this American League game and make my Guardians vs Astros prediction.

Our Guardians vs Astros Pick

• Pick: Astros moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
• Date & Time: Monday, July 7, 2025, 8:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs Hunter Brown
• Stadium: Daikin Park
• Broadcast: SCHN and CLEG

Key Storylines

Pitching form: Hunter Brown has been spectacular, with a 9-3 record and a 1.82 ERA. He has struck out 126 batters in 104 innings of work, mowing down opposing hitters consistently and earning an All-Star nod. Tanner Bibee has struggled lately, dropping to 4-9 with a 4.20 ERA.

Bullpen usage: Houston’s bullpen is battle-tested and efficient. They rank second to the San Francisco Giants in bullpen ERA this season. Closer Josh Hader has been nearly automatic, converting save chances with few mistakes. Cleveland’s bullpen has a sub-4.00 ERA, but is not quite at the same level as the Astros.

Recent team streaks:

• Astros: The Astros swept the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers over three games this past weekend, dominating that series by a combined 29-6 margin.
• Guardians: Cleveland has dropped their last 10 straight games. They were most recently swept by the Detroit Tigers over the holiday weekend.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 games: Astros 4-1, Guardians 0-5.
• Season Series: Houston won two of the first three games played between these teams on the season.
• Browning Out: Houston has won each of the last seven games that Hunter Brown has started for them, allowing no more than three runs as a team in those seven games.

Guardians vs Astros Model Projection

Score Projection: Cleveland 3 – Houston 5

Win Probability: Astros 59%, Guardians 41%

Final Thoughts

The Guardians need to find a way to stop the bleeding before the All-Star break. Unfortunately for them, I don’t see that happening against the Astros, especially with Hunter Brown on the mound. Expect the Astros to hand the Guardians their 11th straight loss and for the Astros to build on their successful weekend in Los Angeles by picking up their fourth straight victory.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.