Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/10/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off on July 10, 2024, at Comerica Park, both teams find themselves in different positions within the American League Central standings. The Tigers, with a 43-49 record, are having a below-average season, while the Guardians, boasting a 57-33 record, are enjoying a great season and are very much in the hunt for a playoff spot.

The Tigers will send Reese Olson to the mound, a right-hander ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Olson has been solid with a 3.22 ERA over 17 starts, but his 3.75 SIERA suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season. The projections have Olson pitching 5.5 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 4.2 batters. However, his peripherals indicate he could struggle, potentially allowing 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee, another right-hander but ranked higher at 28th. Bibee has a 3.67 ERA over 18 starts and is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 5.5 batters. Both pitchers are expected to have average outings in terms of innings pitched, but Bibee's overall metrics suggest he might have the edge.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled, ranking 26th in MLB overall. They are 24th in team batting average, 21st in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Guardians rank 12th overall, with an average ranking in team batting average (13th) and strong showings in home runs (10th) and stolen bases (9th).

The Tigers' bullpen is middle-of-the-pack, ranked 16th, while the Guardians boast the top bullpen in MLB, a significant advantage late in games. This disparity could be crucial in a close contest.

Looking at recent form, Colt Keith has been the Tigers' standout hitter over the last week, with a .414 batting average and 1.348 OPS, including four home runs and seven RBIs. For the Guardians, Angel Martinez has been hot, hitting .368 with a 1.187 OPS over the same period.

The Guardians are favored with a -150 moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. Given their superior bullpen, stronger offense, and the edge in the starting pitching matchup, Cleveland looks well-positioned to continue their strong season. The Tigers, as +130 underdogs, have an implied win probability of 42%, and while they've shown some bright spots, they'll need everything to go right to pull off the upset.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Tyler Freeman's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 87.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 83-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Daniel Schneemann hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 83rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has averaged 93.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Riley Greene is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Detroit Tigers have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 10.7° figure is among the lowest in baseball this year (#28 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 45% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.36 vs Detroit Tigers 3.8

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.