Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 5/22/2025

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on May 22, 2025, at Comerica Park, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League Central. The Tigers, boasting a strong 33-17 record, are having an impressive season, while the Guardians, at 26-22, are performing above average but still seeking consistency.

The Tigers are projected to start right-hander Jack Flaherty, who has had a challenging year with a 2-5 record and an average ERA of 4.44. However, advanced stats suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 3.34 xFIP predicts better outcomes moving forward. Flaherty's high strikeout rate of 28.9% could pose problems for the Guardians, who rank among the lowest in strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, Tanner Bibee will take the mound for the Guardians. His 3-4 record and above-average ERA of 4.06 reflect a decent performance, yet the projections indicate he may regress due to a higher xFIP of 4.69. Bibee's low strikeout rate of 16.4% may benefit the Tigers, who have struggled with strikeouts, ranking 5th most in MLB.

The Tigers’ offense ranks 6th overall, showing great power with a top 7 ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Guardians sit at 21st in overall offensive production, which could be a deciding factor in this matchup. The projections suggest that the Tigers could have the upper hand, particularly with their potent bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB.

With the Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be a tightly contested affair, but the Tigers' current form and offensive capabilities make them a favorable pick for bettors.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With 8 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Jack Flaherty will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Colt Keith is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+14.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+4.35 Units / 17% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.94, Detroit Tigers 3.99

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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