Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park for the fourth game of their series. The Tigers are currently enjoying a strong season, sitting at 33-20, while the Guardians trail slightly at 29-22. Both teams have solid records, but Detroit's elite pitching and potent offense give them the edge in this matchup.

Going into this game, the offense of the Tigers ranks 7th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Guardians, who hold the 23rd spot in offensive rankings, and will look to keep up with the Tigers offensively like they did in their win over Detroit on Saturday.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Tarik Skubal, who is currently rated as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Skubal has a solid 4-2 record with an impressive 2.87 ERA and projects to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing an average of just 1.6 earned runs. In contrast, Logan Allen will take the ball for the Guardians, but he's had a tougher season with a 2-2 record and a 3.86 ERA. The projections suggest that Allen might be due for regression, as his xFIP of 4.93 indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this year.

With the Tigers' strong bullpen ranked 2nd and the Guardians' bullpen also performing well at 5th, the late innings could be crucial. However, the overall mismatch in offensive capabilities and starting pitching quality heavily favors the Tigers as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -225. Given their current form and the Guardians’ limitations, this matchup looks promising for Detroit to build on their successful season.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Lane Thomas has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 7.4% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tarik Skubal has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.4% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Spencer Torkelson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 90.5-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Justyn-Henry Malloy, Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney, Riley Greene).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.05 Units / 32% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 2.92, Detroit Tigers 4.3

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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