Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/24/2025

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on May 24, 2025, the stakes will be high in this American League Central matchup. The Tigers, with a strong record of 33-19, currently sit comfortably in the standings, while the Guardians are right behind at 28-22. Detroit has been on a roll, and their offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, boasting a team batting average that also puts them among the upper tier. But it was Cleveland that got the win when these teams played on Friday.

On the mound, Casey Mize will take the hill for Detroit, bringing a solid 6-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.53 to the game. However, projections suggest he may face challenges today, as he is expected to pitch only 4.5 innings while allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs. Despite this, Mize has been effective this season, and the Tigers' 2nd best bullpen in MLB should provide robust support.

Luis Ortiz counters for Cleveland, posting a 2-5 record with a more moderate ERA of 4.66. Ortiz's projections indicate he will pitch about 5.7 innings with an expected 2.4 earned runs allowed. Notably, Ortiz is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Tigers lineup that struggles with strikeouts, which could play into Cleveland's favor.

With the Tigers favored at -150, the projected game total of 8.0 runs suggests a competitive outing ahead. Overall, Detroit's strong offensive and pitching advantage positions them well, making them likely to extend their winning streak against a Cleveland team still trying to find its rhythm.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis L. Ortiz has gone to his secondary pitches 9.9% more often this year (56%) than he did last year (46.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nolan Jones has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Bo Naylor, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize's 94-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.4-mph decline from last season's 95.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Javier Baez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Ortiz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.68 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.06, Detroit Tigers 4.12

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

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