Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 5/16/2025

On May 16, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Cleveland Guardians at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Reds come into this game with a record of 21-24, struggling below average this season, while the Guardians boast a strong 25-18 record, positioning themselves as a competitive force in the league.

Cincinnati is projected to start Brady Singer, who has had an average season with a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 4.97. Although he ranks as the 115th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown signs of potential improvement, with a 4.13 xFIP suggesting he may have been unlucky thus far. On the other hand, Tanner Bibee of the Guardians has been performing better, with a 3.80 ERA and a higher Power Rankings position at 74th.

While both pitchers are right-handed and projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, Bibee's low strikeout rate may actually benefit him against the Reds, who rank 4th in MLB for strikeouts. The Reds’ offense ranks 14th overall but struggles with a 21st rank in batting average. Meanwhile, the Guardians' lineup is slightly below average at 18th in MLB.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Reds holding a moneyline of +105 and the Guardians at -125. Cincinnati has a high implied team total of 4.34 runs, suggesting they may find ways to score against a strong Guardians bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB. This matchup could see the Reds capitalize on the Guardians' pitching vulnerabilities, making for an exciting game.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's 2211-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 150-rpm fall off from last year's 2361-rpm mark.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all major league parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Matt McLain is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tanner Bibee has hit the Strikeouts Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 57% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.49, Cincinnati Reds 4.75

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Brady Singer - Reds

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.