Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/18/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Cleveland Guardians on May 18, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this pivotal Interleague matchup. The Reds, sitting at 23-24, are having an average season, while the Guardians, with a record of 25-20, are faring better. In their last game, the Reds secured a narrow victory, which could provide a confidence boost heading into this series.

Andrew Abbott is projected to take the mound for Cincinnati. Despite being ranked the 136th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his 2-0 record and an impressive 2.10 ERA suggest that he can be effective. However, his 3.70 xFIP indicates that he might have benefited from some good fortune this season. Abbott's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks per outing could be a concern.

On the other side, Luis Ortiz will start for Cleveland. Although he is considered an average pitcher, his 4.78 ERA this season is below par. Ortiz's 3.89 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky, and he is expected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. With a high strikeout rate of 26.1%, he might find success against a Reds lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Reds rank 13th in MLB, showing decent potential, particularly in their power numbers. The Guardians, however, struggle offensively, sitting at 20th overall. This disparity could give the Reds an edge, especially considering their recent offensive performances. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive, and the Reds' current moneyline of -130 reflects a belief in their ability to capitalize on their home advantage.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Luis L. Ortiz is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in MLB — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Typically, hitters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Austin Hedges projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott's change-up usage has spiked by 5.4% from last year to this one (16.4% to 21.8%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cincinnati Reds hitters as a unit have been one of the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 3rd-worst) as it relates to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.82, Cincinnati Reds 4.65

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.