Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/17/2025

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Cleveland Guardians at Great American Ball Park on May 17, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. Fresh off a tight 5-4 win against the Guardians on May 16, the Reds look to build on that momentum, despite sitting at a subpar 22-24 record this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians, who are performing better at 25-19, will aim to rebound after yesterday's close loss.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Chase Petty, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled significantly this season, holding an 0-2 record and a dismal 21.94 ERA over his two starts. His performance has been further undercut by his tendency to allow a significant number of walks, evidenced by an average of 1.4 walks per game projected for today. However, the projections suggest that his 6.87 xFIP indicates he may be due for better fortune.

Opposing him will be Slade Cecconi, also a right-handed pitcher, who has faced his share of challenges. While he has pitched marginally better than Petty, his average projection of 2.7 earned runs points to a matchup that might not favor either pitcher. Cecconi's recent performances have not inspired confidence either.

At the plate, the Reds boast a respectable offense, ranking 13th in MLB, highlighted by their power numbers as they stand 13th in home runs. In contrast, the Guardians' offense has struggled, currently ranked 21st overall. This could play a crucial role in determining the outcome, especially with the Reds holding a high implied team total of 4.53 runs for this matchup.

Despite their below-average start, the Reds will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Guardians' offensive woes as they push for another win in what promises to be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Slade Cecconi has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54.4% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Gabriel Arias is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his previous GS, Chase Petty allowed a staggering 9 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Spencer Steer has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.92, Cincinnati Reds 4.83

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - Guardians
  • Chase Petty - Reds

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