Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians face off against the Chicago White Sox on September 11, 2024, the stakes are clear: the Guardians are vying for a solid finish to their season, currently holding an impressive record of 83-62, while the White Sox are struggling with a dismal 33-113 mark. This matchup, the third in the series, comes on the heels of the Guardians’ 5-0 victory over the White Sox just a day prior, where Chicago's offense was once again stymied.

Starting for the White Sox is Davis Martin, a right-handed pitcher with a 3.29 ERA this season, though his xFIP of 4.38 suggests he may be due for regression. Despite his decent ERA, Martin has struggled to find consistent success, as evidenced by his 0-3 record in seven starts. He projects to allow 2.8 earned runs and strike out only 3.7 batters on average, which could spell trouble against a Guardians lineup that ranks 17th overall in MLB offense.

On the other side, Cleveland will counter with Matthew Boyd, a left-handed pitcher who has been stellar this season, posting a 2.20 ERA and a solid 2-1 record in five starts. Boyd's ability to limit walks (4.6 BB%) could be crucial against a White Sox offense that ranks 2nd worst in the league in drawing walks. With a strong performance in his last outing, where he allowed just one earned run over six innings, Boyd is positioned to dominate a Chicago lineup that ranks 30th in overall offensive production.

According to projections, the White Sox are expected to score only 4.05 runs on average, while the Guardians are forecasted to tally around 5.02 runs. This disparity underscores the Guardians’ status as favorites, and with the White Sox’s recent struggles, there might be value in betting on Cleveland to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Matthew Boyd has averaged 82.9 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 away games (+13.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.98 vs Chicago White Sox 4.07

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