Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/3/2025

On Wednesday night, the Chicago Cubs won a nail-biter over the Cleveland Guardians by a score of 5-4. On Thursday, they will match up again at Wrigley Field, with the Cubs favored to win a third game in a row. Here’s what bettors need to know ahead of Thursday’s showdown between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago Cubs, including my Guardians vs Cubs prediction.

Our Guardians vs Cubs Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+135)
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 8:05 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chicago – Cade Horton (3‑2, 4.80 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 45 IP)
  • Cleveland – Joey Cantillo (1-0, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 28.1 IP)
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: MLB Network, Marquee Sports Network, CLEG

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Cade Horton has struck out 33 across 45 innings, but carries a middling 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
• Joey Cantillo will get the start for the Guardians in an opener role. He hasn’t gone more than three innings in a game this season, so the Guardians will have a lot of work to do out of the bullpen.

Bullpen usage

My focus is on the Guardians bullpen in this game. They are going all bullpen today, and it will be interesting to see if they have the arms to make that work. The Cubs rank second in the league in bullpen ERA, so they should have the advantage in the pens tonight.

Recent team streaks

• Chicago is 51‑35 overall, having won three of their last four.
• Cleveland has dropped six in a row and sits at 40-44.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Cubs are 40-18 as favorites this season.
• Guardians are 23-28 as moneyline underdogs.
• The Cubs lead the season series between these teams 2-0. This is the last time these teams will play in the 2025 regular season.

Guardians vs Cubs Model Projection

Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Guardians 3

Win Probability: Cubs 63%, Guardians 37%

Final Thoughts

Chicago’s combination of better run prevention, a stronger bullpen, favorable home conditions, and Cleveland’s prolonged struggles position them as a solid runline play. Horton should give the Cubs the upper hand early. As long as the Cubs lineup delivers against the Guardians bullpen, Chicago should be able to grab a two-run win.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.