Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/2/2025

Baseball fans of the Midwest, get ready, as the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago Cubs meet at Wrigley Field on Wednesday night. Cleveland is playing some dismal baseball of late, entering this game on a five-game losing streak, while the Cubs are cruising in the NL Central. Here, I break down this interleague matchup and give you my Guardians vs Cubs prediction for the night.

Our Guardians vs Cubs Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 8:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Shōta Imanaga (CHC)
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: ESPN

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Shōta Imanaga holds a superb 2.54 ERA, punched out 37 in 49.2 innings, and permitted only 36 hits. His most recent outing included five strong innings, allowing zero earned runs vs St. Louis.
• Tanner Bibee has been solid for Cleveland (3.90 ERA, 82 strikeouts over 94.2 innings), but has lost his past two starts, giving up five and two runs, respectively.

Bullpen Usage

• Cubs’ bullpen is middle-of-the-pack but should be ready to lock in a lead late if Imanaga exits in the fifth or sixth.
• Guardians may exert caution with Bibee facing early trouble, potentially increasing reliance on their shaky pen.

Recent Team Streaks

• Cubs are 50–35 overall, riding a strong home record of 26-15.
• Guardians are 40–43 and losers of five in a row.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Cubs are 39–18 as moneyline favorites, including 18–6 when priced -159 or shorter.
• Guardians are 4–10 when underdogs by +134 or more.
• The Cubs are 43-35-7 on the O/U, the Guardians are 34-44-5 on the O/U.

Cubs vs Guardians Model Projection

Score Projection: Cubs 5–3 Guardians

Win Probability: Cubs 60%, Guardians 40%

Final Thoughts

The Cubs dominate in nearly every betting category with a strong offense, dependable home pitching, and stacking up well against an undermanned Cleveland side. With Imanaga locked in, the runline value on Chicago is compelling. Expect Crow‑Armstrong to spark the offense while Imanaga sets a tone early. Therefore, backing Cubs at –1.5 seems the best play.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.