Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/1/2025

Central Division teams will meet on Tuesday night, as the Cleveland Guardians of the AL Central visit the Chicago Cubs of the NL Central. Here’s a detailed preview for Tuesday night’s MLB showdown as the Cleveland Guardians head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs, including my Guardians vs Cubs prediction.

Our Guardians vs Cubs Pick

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 • 8:05 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Guardians – Gavin Williams (5‑3, 3.68 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 80 K)
  • Cubs – Matthew Boyd (7‑3, 2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 82 K)
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: TBS

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Matthew Boyd is in top form with a 2.65 ERA, 82 strikeouts across 91.2 innings, and six consecutive starts of at least five innings.
• Gavin Williams enters with a reliable 3.68 ERA and 80 punchouts, though his recent outings feature four straight no decisions as the Guardians have not delivered him across the finish line.

Bullpen usage

• Cubs’ bullpen benefits from Boyd’s frequent quality starts, giving relievers more rest. Chicago’s team ERA sits at 3.88.
• Guardians’ bullpen is solid (74.2% save rate, 59 holds), but Cleveland needs strong relief support if Williams departs early.

Recent team streaks

• The Cubs’ record as favorites is impressive at 39‑18 as moneyline favorites.
• Guardians are struggling, losing four straight and going 3‑7 over their last 10 games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 Games: Cubs 4‑1, Guardians 1‑4.
• Day/Night Splits: Cubs are 25‑15 at night at home.
• Vs LHP/RHP: Guardians are 11‑13 vs LHP and 38‑22 vs RHP; Cubs are dominant vs RHP (33‑25).

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Model Projection

Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Guardians 3

Win Probability: Cubs 71%, Guardians 29%

Final Thoughts

Chicago enters this series opener with momentum, home-field advantage, and a sharp lefty on the mound. Cleveland’s lineup and bullpen have underperformed recently, and Williams’ mixed results offer little confidence against a potent Cubs offense. Boyd’s form, disciplined Cubs bats, and Chicago’s bullpen advantage point decisively to Chicago. My model supports a straight moneyline bet on the Cubs in this matchup.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.