Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 9/1/2025
The Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox will square off on Monday afternoon at Fenway Park in Boston. Both of these teams are in third place in their respective divisions and will be looking for a win to help their cause in the American League Wild Card race. Before this contest begins from Boston, continue reading to get my Guardians vs Red Sox prediction for today.
Our Guardians vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Guardians vs Red Sox
- Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025, 1:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Parker Messick (CLE) vs Brayan Bello (BOS)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN, CLEG
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Parker Messick has been impressive in his first MLB appearances for the Guardians. He has allowed just one earned run over 13.2 innings and has shown excellent control and poise on the mound. Brayan Bello of the Red Sox has been a reliable starter throughout the season. Bello enters this game with a 10-6 record and a 2.99 ERA. He has consistently kept opponents at bay and he will be expected to continue pitching well against the Guardians.
Key Players
- Jose Ramirez (CLE): The Guardians’ third baseman leads the team with 26 home runs and 68 RBI.
- Trevor Story (BOS): The Red Sox shortstop has contributed 22 home runs and 84 RBI to lead the Red Sox in those categories.
Recent team streaks
- Boston is 3-2 over its last five games and lost two out of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates in their last series.
- The Guardians had a four-game winning streak snapped with a loss on Sunday against the Seattle Mariners.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Parker Messick | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
| Brayan Bello | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston leads the season series against the Guardians 2-1 in 2025.
- The Red Sox have won two straight games over the Guardians entering this matchup.
- Cleveland is 33-34 on the road so far this year.
- Boston is 42-27 at home this season.
Guardians vs Red Sox Model Projection
- Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Guardians 3
- Win Probability: Red Sox 65%, Guardians 35%
Final Thoughts
Both teams are sending strong starting pitchers to the mound in this contest. Parker Messick will be tested again in this game after an impressive start to his career with the Guardians. I think Messick will pitch well here and that Bello will do the same on the Boston side of things. I will take the under in this contest with the expectation that both offenses will struggle against two pitchers performing at a high level.
