Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 4/16/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Garrett Whitlock - Red Sox
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -210, Red Sox -1.5 180
• Money Line: Guardians -110, Red Sox -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 50%
• Boston Red Sox - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 50.03%
• Boston Red Sox - 49.97%

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 16, 2024, an exciting American League matchup is set to take place at Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox, with a season record of 9-8, are looking to continue their above-average performance against the Cleveland Guardians, who have had a great season so far with a record of 11-5.

The Red Sox will be the home team for this game, providing them with the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Garrett Whitlock, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Whitlock is ranked as the #59 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is a good pitcher.

On the other side, the Guardians will send right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee to the mound. Bibee has shown promise this season, ranking as the #78 best starting pitcher according to our Power Rankings. While he has a higher ERA, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Whitlock has started three games this year and boasts a 1-0 win/loss record with an excellent 1.26 ERA. However, his 3.58 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Bibee has also started three games, with a 1-0 win/loss record, but a higher ERA of 5.93. His 4.50 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better moving forward.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox rank as the 21st best team in MLB, while the Guardians rank slightly higher at 14th. However, the Red Sox excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Guardians struggle in team home runs, ranking last. The Red Sox bullpen is considered average according to our Power Rankings, while the Guardians bullpen also falls in the same category.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this will be a closely contested game. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting an average-scoring game.

In their last game, the Red Sox played against an unknown opponent, while the Guardians faced an unknown team. The Red Sox's best hitter over the last seven games has been Triston Casas, recording six hits, five runs, five RBIs, and three home runs with a remarkable 1.024 OPS. For the Guardians, Gabriel Arias has been their standout hitter over the past week, with six hits, one home run, and a batting average of .462, accompanied by an impressive 1.500 OPS.

With Whitlock's high-strikeout ability facing the Guardians' low-strikeout offense, Cleveland may have an advantage. However, Whitlock's high walk rate may not be fully exploited by the Guardians' low-walk offense, potentially giving the Red Sox pitcher the upper hand.

Overall, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. The Red Sox will rely on their solid offense and the performance of Garrett Whitlock, while the Guardians will look to capitalize on their strong season record.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.3-mph decline from last year's 94.2-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to league average, Garrett Whitlock has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -7.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games at home (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 137 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction: Guardians 4.83 - Red Sox 4.54

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