Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/16/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On April 16, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Cleveland Guardians at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game marks the second contest in their series, and the stakes are high for the struggling Orioles who have been battling through a tough season with a 6-10 record. In contrast, the Guardians come into this matchup riding a wave of success, holding a solid 9-7 record.

In their previous game, the Guardians outmatched the Orioles, showcasing their strength and putting Baltimore in a deeper hole as they look to turn their season around. The Orioles are projected to start Dean Kremer, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rough start to the season with a 1-2 record and an alarming ERA of 8.16. While Kremer’s advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some positive regression, his performance thus far has left much to be desired.

Gavin Williams, the Guardians’ right-handed ace, has been effective with a 3.46 ERA and an undefeated record of 1-0. Although he has had control issues, walking hitters at a 10.7% rate this season, he faces an Orioles lineup that ranks as the 2nd least patient in baseball—indicating they may struggle to capitalize on his walks.

Despite their offensive ranking as the 17th best in MLB, the Orioles are projected to score a solid 4.50 runs against the Guardians. The projections view this matchup as tight, especially considering the Guardians’ elite bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB. As the Orioles seek to turn their fortunes around, they’ll need a standout performance from Kremer and their bats to best the Guardians and even the series.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tallying 14.1 outs per GS since the start of last season on average, Gavin Williams falls in the 8th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Kyle Manzardo has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last year's 92-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dean Kremer has utilized his secondary pitches 6.2% more often this year (59.1%) than he did last season (52.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 86 of their last 164 games (+15.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+1.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tyler O'Neill has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 40% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.94, Baltimore Orioles 4.26

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

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