Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/15/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on April 15, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Orioles sit at 6-9, struggling with a subpar start to the season, while the Guardians are slightly above average at 8-7. This matchup marks the beginning of a series, and the stakes are high, especially for the Orioles, who are currently favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs.

Baltimore's Charlie Morton will take the mound, looking to shake off a rough start to the season where he is winless with a 0-3 record and a nightmarish ERA of 8.78. Despite these struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 3.98 xFIP indicates some potential for improvement. Morton projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters, which could bode well against a Cleveland lineup that ranks 19th in batting average and may struggle against his right-handed delivery.

On the other side, Logan Allen, the Guardians' left-handed pitcher, has also had his challenges, with a 0-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.60. However, his 5.53 xFIP suggests he might be due for regression. Allen's high walk rate of 15.6% could play into the Orioles' favor, as they rank just 3rd least in walks drawn, potentially negating Allen's control issues.

Both teams’ offenses rank in the middle of the pack, with the Orioles at 18th and the Guardians at 19th. With the Orioles’ bullpen ranked 10th and the Guardians boasting the 1st best bullpen in MLB, this matchup could hinge on how long each starter can hold up against the opposing lineup. As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors should keep a close eye on how these pitchers perform.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (58.7% compared to 51.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Gabriel Arias is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Gary Sanchez has a ton of pop (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Logan Allen doesn't generate many whiffs (21st percentile K%) — great news for Sanchez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+15.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 away games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.96, Baltimore Orioles 4.68

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles

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