Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/26/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Chris Sale - Braves
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -120, Braves -1.5 100
• Money Line: Guardians 175, Braves -205
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 35%
• Atlanta Braves - 65%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 33.1%
• Atlanta Braves - 66.9%

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Cleveland Guardians in an exciting interleague matchup on April 26, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 17-6, are having a great season, while the Guardians are also performing well with a record of 18-7.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, while the Guardians will counter with left-handed pitcher Logan Allen. Morton, known for his experience and skill, will look to continue his strong performance on the mound. Allen, on the other hand, has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.06, but his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and may improve going forward.

This game marks the first meeting between these two teams in the series. The Braves, with their potent offense, rank as the best in MLB this season. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. The Guardians, while having an average offense, rank last in team home runs, which could be a disadvantage for them in this matchup.

In terms of pitching, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks the Braves bullpen as the third-best in MLB, while the Guardians bullpen ranks twelfth. This suggests that the Braves may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Braves are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -205, giving them an implied win probability of 65%. The Guardians, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +175 and an implied win probability of 35%. Based on the current odds, the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.96 runs, while the Guardians have a lower implied team total of 3.54 runs.

It's worth noting that the Braves' best hitter over the last seven games has been Travis d'Arnaud, who has been on a hot streak with impressive batting average, home runs, and RBIs. On the other side, the Guardians' best hitter over the last seven games has been Will Brennan, who has also been performing well.

With the Braves' strong offense and the Guardians' struggles in power hitting, this game could favor the Braves. However, with baseball's unpredictable nature, anything can happen on the field. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching this matchup between two competitive teams.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Logan Allen will post an average of 14.7 outs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The switch-hitting Jose Ramirez will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Chris Sale... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Sale's huge platoon split.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's slider usage has risen by 5.1% from last year to this one (37.6% to 42.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Atlanta Braves in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .339, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .354 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+13.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 132 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has only hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 7 games (-0.05 Units / -1% ROI)

Guardians vs Braves Prediction: Guardians 3.74 - Braves 5.14

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