Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 8/20/2025
The Cleveland Guardians and Arizona Diamondbacks will meet for the final time this regular season on Wednesday afternoon. Both teams have taken one game of this three-game series so far. The winner of this contest will get a series win as well as a much-needed win for their Wild Card hopes. Before the action begins in Phoenix, you can find my Guardians vs Diamondbacks prediction below.
Our Guardians vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5 runs
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date & Time: Wednesday, August 20, 2025, 3:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt vs Parker Messick
- Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ARID and CLEG
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Arizona turns to Brandon Pfaadt for this game. The veteran has a 12–8 record and a 5.08 ERA. Pfaadt has struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard this season. But he has an undeniable experience edge in today’s pitching matchup. Cleveland will go with rookie Parker Messick on the mound. This is Messick’s MLB debut and the debutant will look to impress in his first action in the big leagues.
Wild Card Update
The Guardians come into this game three games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Arizona is in a worse spot. They are seven games back of the final National League Wild Card position. Getting a series win here would be huge for either team as they look to make up some ground in the standings.
Recent team streaks
Cleveland enters the game having dropped four of its last five games. Arizona snapped a four-game skid with a 6-5 win in Tuesday’s game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Brayan Rocchio (CLE) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| José Ramírez (CLE) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 1-1 going into this game.
- This is the final game scheduled between these interleague opponents during the 2025 regular season.
- The over/under is 1-1 in the two games between Cleveland and Arizona.
- Cleveland is 20-27 against National League opponents to this point in the season.
- Arizona is 18-20 against interleague opponents.
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Diamondbacks 6 – Guardians 5
- Win Probability: Diamondbacks 52%, Guardians 48%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think it is going to be good for the Guardians to start a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut today. But I’m not all that sure that Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona pitching staff have what it takes to take full advantage of that either. Instead of backing either side to win this game, I am looking at the total for this one. The over appears to be the best play, as I think both offenses will score against soft pitching.
