Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 6/15/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians square off again on June 15, 2024, at Rogers Centre, in what is shaping up to be a compelling American League matchup. The Blue Jays, with a record of 33-36, are in the midst of a below-average season and trail the Guardians, who are having a stellar season with a 44-23 record. The Blue Jays will be looking to bounce back after dropping the series opener 3-1 to the Guardians on June 14.

Toronto will send right-hander Bowden Francis to the mound. Francis, who has a 7.36 ERA this season, is ranked as the 230th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating struggles on the mound. However, his 4.17 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat unlucky and could see improved performance going forward. The Blue Jays' offense, which ranks 22nd in MLB, has struggled across the board, ranking 23rd in batting average and 27th in home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains their top hitter with a .278 batting average and a .772 OPS.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco, also a right-hander, holds a 5.50 ERA this season. Like Francis, his 4.38 xFIP indicates potential for better results. Carrasco's performance has been subpar, but he faces a Blue Jays lineup that is one of the least strikeout-prone in the league, potentially diminishing his effectiveness. Cleveland's offense, ranked 11th in MLB, has been solid, with Jose Ramirez leading the charge, boasting 18 home runs and an .864 OPS.

The Guardians boast the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, a stark contrast to the Blue Jays' 13th-ranked bullpen. This could prove decisive in a close contest. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 55% win probability, higher than their implied probability of 52%. With both teams' offenses and starting pitchers struggling, bullpen performance could tip the scales in favor of Cleveland. However, betting markets suggest a tight game, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (91.7 mph) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (90.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball hitters, Bowden Francis and his 41.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today's game being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

George Springer is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 65 games (+15.02 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+7.00 Units / 14% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.47 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.77

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