Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 6/14/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians are set to kick off their series on June 14, 2024, at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a 33-35 record, are having an average season, while the Guardians are enjoying a great season with a 43-23 record. This American League matchup promises to be an intriguing one, especially with Kevin Gausman and Logan Allen taking the mound.

Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays' right-handed ace, has a respectable 5-4 record and a solid 4.00 ERA this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gausman has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.38 xFIP suggests he should be performing even better. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 5.5 batters. Despite these strong projections, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, which could be a concern against a capable Guardians lineup.

On the other side, Logan Allen will be the starting pitcher for the Guardians. Allen's 6-3 record belies his struggles this season, as evidenced by his poor 5.57 ERA. However, his 4.35 xFIP indicates he has also faced some bad luck. The projections have Allen pitching 5.3 innings and allowing 2.9 earned runs on average. His low strikeout rate and tendency to give up hits and walks could spell trouble against a Blue Jays offense that ranks #2 in MLB in avoiding strikeouts.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have been underwhelming, ranking 22nd in both overall offense and team batting average. They also rank 26th in home runs and 21st in stolen bases, highlighting their struggles at the plate. Conversely, the Guardians' offense is more balanced, ranking 11th overall and 16th in batting average. They also boast the 11th most home runs and 7th most stolen bases, making them a well-rounded threat.

The bullpens could play a significant role in this game. The Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 14th according to Power Rankings, while the Guardians' bullpen is an elite unit, ranking 2nd. This advantage in the late innings could be crucial for Cleveland, especially if the game is close.

Notably, the Blue Jays' best hitter over the last week has been Ernie Clement, who has posted a .375 batting average and a 1.000 OPS in five games. For the Guardians, Steven Kwan has been on fire, hitting .533 with a 1.517 OPS over his last four games.

With the Blue Jays' current moneyline set at -135, the betting markets imply a 55% win probability for them, suggesting a close game. The Guardians' moneyline is at +115, translating to a 45% win probability. Given the Guardians' stronger season and bullpen, they might be worth considering as a potential upset pick.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Recording 14.9 outs per start this year on average, Logan Allen places him the 21st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Josh Naylor's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.96 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman has added a sinker to his repertoire this year and has mixed it in 5.1% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Kevin Kiermaier, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 65 games (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+7.75 Units / 8% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.17 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.54

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