Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 7/14/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians at Tropicana Field on July 14, 2024, for the third game in their series. This American League matchup is pivotal as the Guardians are enjoying a fantastic season with a 58-36 record, while the Rays are hovering around .500 at 47-48. Despite the disparity in records, betting markets suggest a close game, with the Rays holding a slight edge at -130.

On the mound, Ryan Pepiot starts for the Rays, bringing an above-average performance this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Pepiot ranks 63rd among starters, making him a reliable arm. He boasts a 5-5 record and a 4.20 ERA over 16 starts, indicating solid, if not spectacular, outings. However, Pepiot’s projected 5.4 innings and 2.1 earned runs today are favorable, although his projections for hits (4.3) and walks (1.5) allowed are concerning.

The Guardians counter with Ben Lively, whose 8-4 record and 3.59 ERA paint a picture of success, but a 4.17 xFIP suggests some luck may be involved. Lively faces a Rays offense that has struggled this season, ranking 22nd in overall performance, 20th in batting average, and 26th in home runs. However, Tampa Bay's aggressive base running, with the 5th most stolen bases in MLB, could pose a challenge.

Cleveland’s offense, ranking 12th overall, 13th in batting average, and 11th in home runs, provides a more balanced attack. Bo Naylor has been particularly hot, posting a 1.089 OPS with two home runs over the last week. The Guardians' ability to make contact might exploit Pepiot’s tendency to allow hits.

Both bullpens are strengths, with the Rays ranked 6th and the Guardians 4th, suggesting any lead heading into the late innings will be tough to overcome. Given the Guardians' strong season and Lively's potential regression, the Rays appear to have a slight edge, but this game could go either way. Expect a close contest with the potential for a few late-inning dramatics.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (60.5 compared to 54.4% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot was on point in his previous start and posted 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 88 games (+21.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 89 games (+13.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+9.60 Units / 96% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.86 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.37

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