Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals Pick For 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting seasons. The Cardinals, with a 78-77 record, are having an average season, while the Guardians, at 90-66, are enjoying a great season. The Cardinals are eliminated from division contention, whereas the Guardians are on the cusp of securing a playoff spot.

In this interleague matchup, Andre Pallante takes the mound for St. Louis. Pallante, the #90 best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been solid this year with a 3.87 ERA. Despite his low strikeout rate, Pallante has been efficient, and projections suggest he will pitch around 6.0 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs.

The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams, who has been somewhat unlucky this season. Despite his 5.12 ERA, his 4.06 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Williams, ranked #77 among starting pitchers, is expected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs on average. His low strikeout projection against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 19th in overall offensive capability could be a concern.

Offensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. The Cardinals rank 13th in team batting average but struggle with power, sitting at 23rd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Guardians, though 20th in batting average, show more pop with the 12th most home runs and excel on the base paths, ranking 5th in stolen bases.

Bullpen depth could be decisive, with Cleveland's relief corps ranked 4th, significantly outperforming St. Louis's 18th-ranked bullpen. With evenly matched moneylines and a low game total set at 7.5 runs, the Guardians' superior bullpen and favorable season record might give them an edge in what should be a closely contested battle. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Cardinals with a 53% win probability, making this a game to watch for potential late-inning drama.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph rise from last season's 95-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Brayan Rocchio has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 80-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Jose Ramirez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.6% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Andre Pallante (59.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Cleveland's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Michael Siani, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.86 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.88

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.