Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On August 21, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams currently enjoying strong seasons. The Yankees boast a record of 73-53, while the Guardians are slightly ahead at 73-52. Both squads are in contention for a postseason berth, making this game particularly significant.

In their previous game, the Yankees fell to the Guardians in a 12-inning thriller, which puts additional pressure on them as they look to even the series. The Yankees will send Nestor Cortes to the mound, who has had a challenging season with a 6-10 record and a 4.20 ERA. Despite his struggles, Cortes ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he possesses the potential to perform well. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, although he may also issue 1.3 walks, which could be problematic against a disciplined Guardians lineup.

Facing Cortes will be Joey Cantillo, who has struggled in his limited appearances and holds a disappointing 6.23 ERA. He is projected to pitch only 4.2 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and 2.5 walks. This could spell trouble for the Guardians, especially since they face a Yankees offense ranked as the 1st best in MLB. While Cantillo's 5.14 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky, his control issues against a patient Yankees lineup may lead to a challenging outing.

With the Yankees as the betting favorite at a moneyline of -165, they are expected to score 4.71 runs, while the Guardians are projected for an average of 3.79 runs. Given the Yankees' powerful offense and the struggles of Cantillo, this game could tilt in favor of New York, especially as they seek redemption after yesterday's loss.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Compared to the average hurler, Joey Cantillo has been granted a below-average leash since the start of last season, recording an -9.2 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Typically, hitters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nestor Cortes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nestor Cortes has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6.1% more often this year (53.6%) than he did last year (47.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Yankees bats as a unit grade out in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 10.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 95 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 25 games (+23.00 Units / 92% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.83 vs New York Yankees 4.91

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