Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Pick For 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on August 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for playoff positioning, with the Yankees holding a 74-53 record and the Guardians sitting at 73-53. The stakes are high, especially considering the Yankees are coming off a strong performance in their last outing, which saw them win 8-1 at home.

In this matchup, Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is projected to take the mound. Cole, ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, holds a solid 4-2 record this season alongside an ERA of 4.15. The projections suggest he’ll pitch an average of 6.0 innings while allowing only 2.3 earned runs, although he does struggle with walks, averaging 1.4 per game. He’ll face Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams, who has had a rough season with a 2-5 record and a high ERA of 5.02. Despite this, projections indicate that Williams could be due for a bounce-back performance.

The Yankees' offense is a significant strength, ranking 1st in MLB this season, and they particularly excel with power, sitting 2nd in home runs. Aaron Judge has been a standout player lately, leading the team with impressive recent stats, including 4 home runs in the last week. Conversely, the Guardians rank 16th in MLB for offense, making it a challenge for them against a strong Yankees staff.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the Yankees are favored at -165, reflecting their advantageous position. The Guardians' underdog status at +145 could present an intriguing opportunity for those looking for a potential upset, especially given their solid defense and the unpredictability of baseball.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.2-mph jump from last season's 95-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Will Brennan has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Gerrit Cole has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Aaron Judge has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.9-mph to 98-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 64 games (+19.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+8.90 Units / 78% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.99 vs New York Yankees 4.94

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