Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 8/10/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Guardians on August 10, 2024, the stakes are high in this pivotal American League Central matchup. Both teams are firmly in contention for the postseason, with the Guardians currently leading the division with a record of 67-49, while the Twins, at 65-50, look to close the gap. Yesterday, the Twins faced off against the Guardians, with the Twins sweeping both games of their double-header to tighten things up in the AL Central race.

On the mound, the Twins will send out Simeon Woods Richardson, who has had an average season with a 3-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.87 over 19 starts. However, his advanced stats suggest he has been below average overall, ranking as the 136th best starting pitcher in MLB. Woods Richardson's projections indicate he may struggle today, anticipated to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing around 2.6 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.5 walks.

Opposing him is Gavin Williams for the Guardians, whose 1-4 record and 4.91 ERA paint a troubling picture. However, Williams's xFIP of 3.77 suggests he might be due for better luck. The projections show he is likely to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs with 4.4 hits and 1.9 walks.

Offensively, the Twins rank 7th in MLB in team batting average, which bodes well for their chances today. They are also 8th in home runs, giving them a powerful edge against Williams, who has struggled this season. In contrast, the Guardians' offense ranks 15th in both batting average and home runs, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 8th overall.

With the Twins' strong batting lineup and the Guardians' pitching uncertainties, this matchup should be closely contested, especially with the Twins' moneyline currently set at -120, indicating a potential value play for bettors looking to capitalize on a close game.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.1-mph spike from last year's 95-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Over the past week, Lane Thomas's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 18.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 6.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Max Kepler will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 32 games at home (+16.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 115 games (+9.47 Units / 6% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.80 Units / 89% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.87 vs Minnesota Twins 4.46

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.