Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins Pick For 6/8/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on June 8, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, the teams find themselves in contrasting positions this season. The Marlins, with a dismal 22-41 record, are struggling mightily, while the Guardians are riding high at 40-22, firmly in the playoff hunt. This interleague matchup is the second game of the series, with the Guardians looking to continue their winning ways.

On the mound, the Marlins will start Roddery Munoz, a right-hander with a 1-1 record and a lackluster 5.17 ERA over three starts this season. Despite his high strikeout rate (28.8%), Munoz has been plagued by bad luck, as indicated by his 3.67 xFIP. However, he faces a Guardians offense that ranks 5th in least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing his strength. Munoz is projected to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.8 walks on average.

Opposing him is Ben Lively, also a right-hander, who has excelled with a 5-2 record and an impressive 2.84 ERA over nine starts. However, his 4.09 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate so far. Lively is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.5 walks. He faces a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB, with a particularly low power ranking of 28th in home runs. This matchup could favor Lively, a high-flyball pitcher, given Miami's struggles to turn flyballs into homers.

Offensively, the Marlins' best hitter over the last week has been Josh Bell, boasting a .400 batting average and a 1.179 OPS over five games. Meanwhile, the Guardians' Daniel Schneemann has been on fire, hitting .444 with a 1.323 OPS over four games.

The Guardians' bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, further bolsters their chances, especially against the Marlins' 27th-ranked bullpen. Betting lines reflect this disparity, with the Guardians as favorites at -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Marlins are underdogs at +140 with a 40% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (59.4 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

This season, there has been a decline in Josh Naylor's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.8 ft/sec last year to 24.89 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Cleveland Guardians (17.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

In his last game started, Roddery Munoz allowed a staggering 6 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Josh Bell, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.37 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 5.22 vs Miami Marlins 4.6

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